My Own Side

“A liberal is a man too broadminded to take his own side in a quarrel.” - Robert Frost

July 25th, 2006

Surprising Hezbollah

There’s a very revealing AP article here (an expanded version is here).

A senior Hezbollah official said Tuesday the guerrilla group did not expect Israel to react so strongly to its capture of two Israeli soldiers.

He said Hezbollah had expected “the usual, limited response” from Israel to the July 12 cross-border raid, in which three Israelis were killed.

In the past, he said, Israeli responses to Hezbollah actions included sending commandos into Lebanon to seize Hezbollah officials or briefly targeting specific Hezbollah strongholds.

He said the Shiite group had anticipated there would be negotiations on exchanging the Israeli soldiers for three Lebanese prisoners in Israeli jails, with Germany acting as a mediator as it did before.

In other words, Hezbollah terrorists feel that Israel is cheating at the game they have been playing for decades. It goes something like this.

  • We stab you and run.
  • Repeat.
  • Eventually, after an appropriate period of time that must pass to demonstrate to the “International Community” that you are showing the appropriate restraint, you lash back.
  • The “International Community” gears up to condemn you for ”disproportionate use of force“.
  • You retreat.
  • We slink back.
  • Go to step 1.

Programmers call this an “infinite loop”. The media calls it a “cycle of violence”. Apparently Israeli Prime Minister Olmert decided to call it something unprintable and change the rules.

It’s never too late to change, but on this one Israel does need to take some responsibility for the terrorists expectations. In the past, Israel has exchanged over a thousand killers for a handful of Israeli soldiers and even the bodies of Israeli soldiers. Hezbollah has come to expect this. It can only be a good thing that Hezbollah’s expectations are now being changed.

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